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Goldman not only survived the crash that wiped out so many of the investors it duped, it went on to become the chief underwriter to the country’s wealthiest and most powerful corporations. Thanks to Sidney Weinberg, who rose from the rank of janitor’s assistant to head the firm, Goldman became the pioneer of the initial public offering, one of the principal and most lucrative means by which companies raise money. During the 1970s and 1980s, Goldman may not have been the planet-eating Death Star of political influence it is today, but it was a top-drawer firm that had a reputation for attracting the very smartest talent on the Street.

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But everyone else was doing it, and humans have FOMO. So many investors went against their own better judgment and made what were pretty clearly bad investments.

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Immediately after the AIG bailout, Paulson announced his federal bailout for the financial industry, a $700 billion plan called the Troubled Asset Relief Program, and put a heretofore unknown 35-year-old Goldman banker named Neel Kashkari in charge of administering the funds. In order to qualify for bailout monies, Goldman announced that it would convert from an investment bank to a bank holding company, a move that allows it access not only to $10 billion in TARP funds, but to a whole galaxy of less conspicuous, publicly backed funding — most notably, lending from the discount window of the Federal Reserve. By the end of March, the Fed will have lent or guaranteed at least $8/7 trillion under a series of new bailout programs — and thanks to an obscure law allowing the Fed to block most congressional audits, both the amounts and the recipients of the monies remain almost entirely secret.

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This mindset was an epidemic that almost every brick-and-mortar retailer out there experienced. It didn’t matter if they were a small shop or a big retail giant. They mistakenly thought they were offering an experience that people just had to have. And up until that point, they did.

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How did Goldman achieve such extraordinary results? One answer is that they used a practice called “laddering,” which is just a fancy way of saying they manipulated the share price of new offerings. Here’s how it works: Say you’re Goldman Sachs, and Bullshit.com comes to you and asks you to take their company public. You agree on the usual terms: You’ll price the stock, determine how many shares should be released and take the Bullshit.com CEO on a “road show” to schmooze investors, all in exchange for a substantial fee (typically six to seven percent of the amount raised). You then promise your best clients the right to buy big chunks of the IPO at the low offering price — let’s say Bullshit.com’s starting share price is $15 — in exchange for a promise that they will buy more shares later on the open market.

The effects of the housing bubble are well known — it led more or less directly to the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG, whose toxic portfolio of credit swaps was in significant part composed of the insurance that banks like Goldman bought against their own housing portfolios. In fact, at least $13 billion of the taxpayer money given to AIG in the bailout ultimately went to Goldman, meaning that the bank made out on the housing bubble (https://middleeastexplorer.com/serial-code/?file=7240) twice: It fucked the investors who bought their horseshit CDOs by betting against its own crappy product, then it turned around and fucked the taxpayer by making him pay off those same bets.

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Before 1999, I had read and read and read about historical market bubbles (https://middleeastexplorer.com/serial-code/?file=3457) with great wonder but had never experienced one firsthand myself until the recent mania that capped last millennium. They are truly rare once-in-a-lifetime experiences, generally only cropping up once per Kondratieff Wave, roughly 60 years, in any given nation.

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When you start to see extreme predictions. The example Bernstein gives is how the best-selling investment book in 1999 was Dow 36,000.

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By now, most of us know the major players. As George Bush’s last Treasury secretary, former Goldman CEO Henry Paulson was the architect of the bailout, a suspiciously self-serving plan to funnel trillions of Your Dollars to a handful of his old friends on Wall Street. Robert Rubin, Bill Clinton’s former Treasury secretary, spent 26 years at Goldman before becoming chairman of Citigroup — which in turn got a $300 billion taxpayer bailout from Paulson. There’s John Thain, the asshole chief of Merrill Lynch who bought an $87,000 area rug for his office as his company was imploding; a former Goldman banker, Thain enjoyed a multi-billion-dollar handout from Paulson, who used billions in taxpayer funds to help Bank of America rescue Thain’s sorry company. And Robert Steel, the former Goldmanite head of Wachovia, scored himself and his fellow executives $225 million in golden-parachute payments as his bank was self-destructing. There’s Joshua Bolten, Bush’s chief of staff during the bailout, and Mark Patterson, the current Treasury chief of staff, who was a Goldman lobbyist just a year ago, and Ed Liddy, the former Goldman director whom Paulson put in charge of bailed-out insurance giant AIG, which forked over $13 billion to Goldman after Liddy came on board. The heads of the Canadian and Italian national banks are Goldman alums, as is the head of the World Bank, the head of the New York Stock Exchange, the last two heads of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — which, incidentally, is now in charge of overseeing Goldman — not to mention.

That is what the firm paid in taxes in 2008, an effective tax rate of exactly one, read it, one percent. The bank paid out $10 billion in compensation and benefits that same year and made a profit of more than $2 billion — yet it paid the Treasury less than a third of what it forked over to CEO Lloyd Blankfein, who made $42/9 million last year.

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NFT’s are certainly a disruptor in the art business, giving decentralized permissionless access to anyone to mint their art and sell it directly to the buyer, without permission of a gallery owner to bestow worth or worthlessness. But this first wave of disruption, this isn’t where we are going, it’s just where we are going now, and those claiming we are in a bubble can’t see far enough down the road to understand why the true promise of NFTs is certainty.

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Enter OpenBazzar and BitBay, both decentralized marketplaces aiming to grab a bit of marketshare. But due to the decentralized nature of the platforms, oversight is absent. A quick peek at OpenBazzar shows a mural of a woman, ostensibly and original, on sale for $500. And if I hadn’t been creating on Canva just last night I might have missed that it’s a stock photo, swiped and listed. In the glory days of Silk Road, where anything and everything was bought and sold, users knew to do their own due diligence. Very few mainstream citizens ventured into the dark web where on any page they might be mentally scared for life. But this new era of decentralization is missing a core component to the idea of trustless transactions. Certaining of Identity and Ownership.

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Once the bailouts were in place, Goldman went right back to business as usual, dreaming up impossibly convoluted schemes to pick the American carcass clean of its loose capital. One of its first moves in the post-bailout era was to quietly push forward the calendar it uses to report its earnings, essentially wiping December 2008 — with its $1/3 billion in pretax losses — off the books.

History proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever. Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses and give up their ghosts. Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse. Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes. All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.

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Uber brought that potential to everyday people who wanted to earn extra money by driving others around in their own car. For me, it was ideal, but as you all know, Uber has gotten quite the number of glaring headlines. It’s a culture with some evident flaws.

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The stealth phase is the very early days of an asset when only relatively few people are aware of it and can see the value. It’s like that one annoying friend everyone has who just listens to the most obscure, underground bands from Eastern European countries.

Since it would probably take me a hundred lifetimes to even start to truly fully understand the markets, I have also always been an eager student of market history. Market history really fascinates me not only because it is interesting and colorful reading, but because we have a magnificent opportunity right now today to learn from the countless mistakes made by past generations.

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Plus, it is a fraction of the cost. For those of you who have kids, what stinks more than forcing them to go out of the house and to the doctor when they’re sick? That task is not fun for anyone, no matter how optimistic you try to be about it.

Extrapolation is projecting past data into the future on the same basis; if prices have risen at X rate in the past, prices will continue to rise at X rate forever. Extrapolation causes investors to overbid risky assets in an attempt to capture the same return rates.

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This was complete and utter crap — the 1936 law, remember, was specifically designed to maintain distinctions between people who were buying and selling real tangible stuff and people who were trading in paper alone. But the CFTC, amazingly, bought Goldman’s argument. It issued the bank a free pass, called the “Bona Fide Hedging” exemption, allowing Goldman’s subsidiary to call itself a physical hedger and escape virtually all limits placed on speculators. In the years that followed, the commission would quietly issue 14 similar exemptions to other companies.

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At least that’s what video store owners said – and believed – in 1997 when Netflix was founded. And for a good many years they believed that would still be the case. No big chain video store was more adamant about this than BlockBuster.

The collective message of all this — the AIG bailout, the swift approval for its bank holding conversion, the TARP funds — is that when it comes to Goldman Sachs, there isn’t a free market at all. The government might let other players on the market die, but it simply will not allow Goldman to fail under any circumstances.

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With decentralization, peer-to-peer transactions have changed the world. Its run on the platform and is launching in beta in India. It’s brilliant, and it goes to show how easy it is to transition from a third-party, cash-based system to one that is based on a digital currency.

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Renters and young adults are most likely to have just a cellphone. Researchers attribute this to their mobility and comfort with technology.

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Two more numbers stand out from that stunning first-quarter turnaround. The bank paid out an astonishing $4/7 billion in bonuses and compensation in the first three months of this year, an 18 percent increase over the first quarter of 2008. It also raised $5 billion by issuing new shares almost immediately after releasing its first quarter results. Taken together, the numbers show that Goldman essentially borrowed a $5 billion salary payout for its executives in the middle of the global economic crisis it helped cause, using half-baked accounting to reel in investors, just months after receiving billions in a taxpayer bailout.

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They achieve this using the same playbook over and over again. The formula is relatively simple: Goldman positions itself in the middle of a speculative bubble, selling investments they know are crap. Then they hoover up vast sums from the middle and lower floors of society with the aid of a crippled and corrupt state that allows it to rewrite the rules in exchange for the relative pennies the bank throws at political patronage. Finally, when it all goes bust, leaving millions of ordinary citizens broke and starving, they begin the entire process over again, riding in to rescue us all by lending us back our own money at interest, selling themselves as men above greed, just a bunch of really smart guys keeping the wheels greased. They’ve been pulling this same stunt over and over since the 1920s — and now they’re preparing to do it again, creating what may be the biggest and most audacious bubble yet.

And the most important thing to remember, NFTs are not just a jpg with a serial number logged on a blockchain. Today I had the pleasure of mentoring thousands of artists on their launch and marketing strategies in the NFTClub on Clubhouse. Seeing not only brilliant up and coming traditional and digital artists, but what dancers and sculptors were able to deliver as an NFT inspired me, and proved, there is no limit.

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Nowhere was this truer than at Goldman. Between 1999 and 2002, the firm paid out $28/5 billion in compensation and benefits — an average of roughly $350,000 a year per employee. Those numbers are important because the key legacy of the Internet boom is that the economy is now driven in large part by the pursuit of the enormous salaries and bonuses that such bubbles make possible. Goldman’s mantra of “long-term greedy” vanished into thin air as the game became about getting your check before the melon hit the pavement.

Anyone paying attention could have seen this coming. One of the first signs of a great disruptor is often those who discredit it and say it’ll never work. Maybe it’s because they fear it. Possibly it is not of interest. Either way, their opinion is strong and they poo-poo it until the day comes when they’re the ones under that pile of poo-poo. Everyone else has adapted and embraced it. They find themselves playing catch-up to what has already caught on. Kind of how you feel when you recall I’ve been shouting from the rooftops since 2021 that blockchain would solve myriad problems.

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This has left today’s beloved and lofty stock markets hyper-risky, with serious selloffs looming large

The most recent bubble was the 2008 housing crisis. Banks were handing out mortgages like Halloween candy. Investors got so greedy they ignored how much risk they were taking. Mortgage companies like Country Wide were churning mortgages. They only held the mortgages for a short time before selling them off which means they were assuming none of the risks. That’s why they were giving million dollar mortgages to waitresses.

This bubble is the big one; it’s what helped cause the Great Depression. The market was rising, and people thought it would continue to do so despite signs that the economy was starting to slow. The Fed warned of excessive speculation which caused investors to start selling. The warning prompted a mini-crash, and some financial institutions stepped in to shore up the market. It worked, and people got cocky again.

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A lot of people think it’s Bitcoin and it’s not hard to see why. Less than a decade ago it was worth $0 per coin, and now it’s worth almost $16,000, and your grandmother knows what it is. In our interview with J. David Stein, he disputes this because Bitcoin has no valuation.

Barack Obama, a popular young politician whose leading private campaign donor was an investment bank called Goldman Sachs — its employees paid some $981,000 to his campaign — sits in the White House. Having seamlessly navigated the political minefield of the bailout era, Goldman is once again back to its old business, scouting out loopholes in a new government-created market with the aid of a new set of alumni occupying key government jobs.

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When the growth finally slows down, those investors are no longer getting the expected returns, and the whole thing collapses. Bernie Madoff was the most recent and probably most spectacular example of this.

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Institutional investors take an interest. There is some selloff during the awareness phase by the initial true believers but not enough for anyone to notice. The true believers are starting to think the band is changing, trying to go mainstream to sell out.

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The government subsidizes the policies, so if a homeowner makes a claim, the government, not the insurer pays it out. These policies are nearly pure profit for the insurance company with no risk. Homeowners make a claim, and the company merely handles the paperwork.

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If cap-and-trade succeeds, won’t we all be saved from the catastrophe of global warming? Maybe — but cap-and-trade, as envisioned by Goldman, is really just a carbon tax structured so that private interests collect the revenues. Instead of simply imposing a fixed government levy on carbon pollution and forcing unclean energy producers to pay for the mess they make, cap-and-trade will allow a small tribe of greedy-as-hell Wall Street swine to turn yet another commodities market into a private tax collection scheme. This is worse than the bailout: It allows the bank to seize taxpayer money before it’s even collected.

There are a lot of personal finance terms thrown around that many of us don’t understand so when we hear them, we just nod and smile. But LMM is all about education, so we’re going to devote this episode to understanding economic bubbles (get more info).

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It’s not always easy to accept the reality of what we now routinely allow these people to get away with; there’s a kind of collective denial that kicks in when a country goes through what America has gone through lately, when a people lose as much prestige and status as we have in the past few years. You can’t really register the fact that you’re no longer a citizen of a thriving first-world democracy, that you’re no longer above getting robbed in broad daylight, because like an amputee, you can still sort of feel things that are no longer there.

Complicating matters even further was the fact that Goldman itself was cheerleading with all its might for an increase in oil prices. In the beginning of 2008, Arjun Murti, a Goldman analyst, hailed as an “oracle of oil” by The New York Times, predicted a “super spike” in oil prices, forecasting a rise to $200 a barrel. At the time Goldman was heavily invested in oil through its commodities trading subsidiary, J. Aron; it also owned a stake in a major oil refinery in Kansas, where it warehoused the crude it bought and sold. Even though the supply of oil was keeping pace with demand, Murti continually warned of disruptions to the world oil supply, going so far as to broadcast the fact that he owned two hybrid cars.

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In the 1990’s there was a ton of money from venture capitalists looking to fund the next Facebook or Amazon. Investors in their greed lost their sense of caution and threw cash at startups.

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Of the 24 companies it took public in 1997, a third were losing money at the time of the IPO. In 1999, at the height of the boom, it took 47 companies public, including stillborns like Webvan and eToys, investment offerings that were in many ways the modern equivalents of Blue Ridge and Shenandoah. The following year, it underwrote 18 companies in the first four months, 14 of which were money losers at the time. As a leading underwriter of Internet stocks during the boom, Goldman provided profits far more volatile than those of its competitors: In 1999, the average Goldman IPO leapt 281 percent above its offering price, compared to the Wall Street average of 181 percent.

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Moral hazard means that if someone is protected from risk, they behave differently than if they were fully exposed to the risk. That our behaviors have consequences helps us to make rational decisions. You would love to smack your annoying co-worker, but you don’t because the consequences of doing so are all bad.

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All throughout stock-market history, this binary bull-bear cycle has persisted. Though some bulls grow bigger and last longer than others, all eventually give way to subsequent bears to rebalance sentiment and valuations. So stock investing late in any bull market, which is when investors complacently assume it will last indefinitely, is hyper-risky. Bear markets start at serious 20% SPX losses, and often approach 50%!

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Think about how this pivotal moment changed our lives. Now we have grown accustomed to having a god-like oracle in our pocket and can’t imagine what life would be like without it.

Enter NFTs, with technology now deployed out to the mainstream. Using art and music to penetrate the media blockade on Crypto, NFT’s have arrived. And with new marketplaces opening daily, the industry is headed to the moon, with a few false starts and rocket explosions along the way.

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Now Goldman and other banks were free to drive more investors into the commodities markets, enabling speculators to place increasingly big bets. That 1991 letter from Goldman more or less directly led to the oil bubble in 2008, when the number of speculators in the market — driven there by fear of the falling dollar and the housing crash — finally overwhelmed the real physical suppliers and consumers. By 2008, at least three quarters of the activity on the commodity exchanges was speculative, according to a congressional staffer who studied the numbers — and that’s likely a conservative estimate. By the middle of last summer, despite rising supply and a drop in demand, we were paying $4 a gallon every time we pulled up to the pump.

All that changed in 1991 when, unbeknownst to almost everyone in the world, a Goldman-owned commodities-trading subsidiary called J. Aron wrote to the CFTC and made an unusual argument. Farmers with big stores of corn, Goldman argued, weren’t the only ones who needed to hedge their risk against future price drops — Wall Street dealers who made big bets on oil prices also needed to hedge their risk, because, well, they stood to lose a lot too.

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Startups who do have a good product or service get an influx of cash that allows them to bring their idea to the market. For every one hundred Pets.com, we got an Uber.

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If you love technology like I do you love being an early adopter/evangelist when new tech drops. Being there before everyone else is a thrill, and NFTs offer that same type of thrill.

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The end result (ask yourself if this sounds familiar) was a daisy chain of borrowed money, one exquisitely vulnerable to a decline in performance anywhere along the line. The basic idea isn’t hard to follow. You take a dollar and borrow nine against it; then you take that $10 fund and borrow $90; then you take your $100 fund and, so long as the public is still lending, borrow and invest $900. If the last fund in the line starts to lose value, you no longer have the money to pay back your investors, and everyone gets massacred.

As is so often the case, there had been a Depression-era law in place designed specifically to prevent this sort of thing. The commodities market was designed in large part to help farmers: A grower concerned about future price drops could enter into a contract to sell his corn at a certain price for delivery later on, which made him worry less about building up stores of his crop. When no one was buying corn, the farmer could sell to a middleman known as a “traditional speculator,” who would store the grain and sell it later, when demand returned. That way, someone was always there to buy from the farmer, even when the market temporarily had no need for his crops.

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The housing bubble created a lot of new homes. Before the bubble (why not try this out) burst, the houses were unaffordable but after, they were much cheaper. People who thought they could never afford a home were now able to buy one. Infrastructure also sprung up around all these new homes, things like parks, schools, and improved local services.